31st December 2019, many people around the world were preparing to celebrate the start of a new year and a new decade, full of promise, opportunity and challenges. The major challenge for the 2020’s appeared to be climate change. Rises atmospheric temperatures across the globe, more extreme weather and unpredictable weather patterns brought on by increases in Carbon Dioxide meant threats to food security, flooding of coastal neighbourhoods and an increase in devastating forest fires. Our social and economic structures are built on the assumption that generally there will be a status quo with increased prosperity and growth.
2nd January, 2 days into the new year, China first officially announced that there was a case of a new contagious SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) virus later to be called Coronavirus or Covid-19. On January 21st, they confirmed that Coronavirus was transmitted through human-human contact. By the end of the Month, more than 100 people had died from the virus and the first cases were reported in Europe. Suddenly, ‘within a blink of an eye’, the status quo was at threat of being broken and the world had a new challenge.
23rd March, the UK went under lockdown, with non-essential shops, schools, pubs, restaurants and some cinemas closed as was already the case in most parts of Europe and around the world. A new normal was being developed with new phrases like ‘social distancing’ and ‘self-isolation’ being bandied about. The world had changed its status quo within a matter of months.
What does the future hold? What impact will this new normal have on all aspects of society in the long run? This is obviously dependent on the future direction of the fight against the virus. The longer the fight the bigger the impact will be.
One of the biggest impacts of the virus is on our social foundations. During this lockdown we are finding new methods of social interaction mainly through social media and other digital platforms. Will this continue and will we go back to all piling into the pub on a Friday night to have a drink with our mates? Humans are very much social beings. Our evolution as a species has been forged on living in communities first in small dwellings, then on to living towns and cities. First through the common goal of providing us with food through agriculture and then through economic growth and the need to look for work and a better life. Thousands of years of social evolution are unlikely to change in an instance. However, we may find ourselves becoming more creative with methods of communication and months of lockdown may allow us to appreciate the social opportunities that exist in today’s world.
Months of lockdown obviously has a tremendous impact on the economy. With businesses income decreasing to zero in a lot of cases, a lot will struggle to survive, particularly smaller businesses and start-ups. Most countries are providing economic stimulus packages to, for example, pay staff wages or allow loan and rent deferrals. However, some companies will slip through the net, particularly the ones already struggling. Most economies, particularly post 2008 financial crisis, are delicately balanced with low economic growth and a change to the status quo will tip them over the edge. In the case of a shorter lockdown, it may be initially high consumer confidence, since everyone is so relieved to be back to relative normality, and quantitative easing measures will get through the immediate crisis. However, this will lead to an increase in government debt and low interest rates for a longer time period. Subsequently, inflation could become uncontrollable leading to a further economic downturn in the future. A longer lockdown and sustained strong negative economic growth could cripple the economic, effectively meaning that it would have to start all over again. Perhaps a re-modelling of the global economy will need to take place, akin to what happened at the end of the second world war with the Bretton Woods agreement.
And how will this pandemic change the political landscape? The political leadership in a crisis such is this one is akin to that in wartime. Strong leadership and bipartisan cooperation are required. This is very much a perceived strength of right-wing politicians who feel that they can ‘Get the job done’. However, moving out of this pandemic, will we need a different approach. There will be a will to future proof our society against further pandemics and crises. There will be a strong appetite for an increase in public spending particularly in social care and health services. They will also be a greater focus on political accountability and transparency which will be key to avoiding the mistakes of the past. Political leaders must be accountable for the decisions they make, particularly on spending. The NHS is now seen as precious as it ever has been and needs to be run efficiently and effectively. Does this mean a comeback for strong socialist values? Quite possibly. However, whoever takes charge of the post pandemic political landscape, needs to understand their responsibility to all members of society, rather than simply using their position for power.
The psychological impact of this pandemic is likely to hit the most vulnerable in society hardest. From children, who are missing out on structured education and older people who may have been shielding for long periods to those who have contracted the virus themselves. In the UK, before the pandemic, we were amid a mental health crisis in which cases of depression and anxiety were increasing, particularly amongst young people. When we ‘get back to normal’, these cases will undoubtedly increase as our society shifts dramatically from one set of norms to another. Support networks and funding will need to be in place for these people which will no doubt require extra investment. There is a real risk that we could ‘lose’ a generation of educated children, as not only do they miss out on the 6 months or so of structured study, but also struggle to focus and motivate themselves in the future as their confidence has been eroded. Schools and parents need to be mindful of these and initially emphasis will have to be put on getting children back on track.
Another question that must be asked, is will our attitudes change when planning for further disastrous events? The main existential threat we currently have is climate change. Others include, natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanoes and electromagnetic storms, not to mention further pandemics. We are lucky that Coronavirus has a relatively low death rate of less than 1% albeit a lot higher amongst older people. Ebola has a death rate of around 50% but is not as infectious. If a virus comes along that is both very infectious, possibly with no initial symptoms, and deadly, we will have a much greater problem on our hands. We will have not just a virus which is economically disruptive but also poses an existential threat. A more medium to longer term problem is climate change. We are told we need to act now but the current impact on our daily lives is minimal. The long-term impact could be catastrophic. Who do we convince ourselves that we need to act now when the threat does not seem real? History is all about learning from past events and mistakes people have made. We need to analyse how we have handled this pandemic. We must realise that planning for future events is crucial for our survival. This needs to be done at an international level, possibly led by the United Nations and some of the World’s biggest economies. Investment needs to go directly towards finding practical and workable solutions. We need to make risk planning the number one political agenda item.
It feels like we are at a crossroads (or on the edge of a cliff) as a species and we need to determine which road we are going to take. Let’s hope it turns out to be the right one!
Global Issues UK 